Big Profits Made from Betting on Maduro’s Arrest

Just before the US military launched an operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, a newly created account on a prediction market made some highly questionable investments. This market had been allowing bets on Maduro’s potential removal, with prices for “out by January 31, 2026” dropping to as low as $0.07 late on Friday. However, within 24 hours of the military action, this account invested tens of thousands of dollars, resulting in profits of several hundred thousand.

The account was established less than a week prior and placed over $30,000 in bets the day before the attack, ultimately netting over $408,000 in profit. This unusual activity caught attention on social media, with many speculating that the bettor might have insider information, possibly even connections to the Pentagon. Investor and podcaster Joe Pompliano highlighted on X that “Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged.”

There have been previous instances of apparent insider trading in prediction markets, but companies often show little interest in addressing these issues. They tend to view their platforms as providing valuable news and insights rather than ensuring a level playing field for all investors. When contacted, Kalshi, another prediction market, referred us to a post on X asserting that insider trading violates its rules. We also reached out to Polymarket for a statement but have not yet received a reply.

Update January 3rd: Added comment from Kalshi.