Elon Musk is gearing up for a hectic schedule!
Honestly, I expected Elon Musk to quietly file for SpaceX’s IPO on the 20th of this month instead of the 1st. Maybe he’s just shifted his focus to different dates, so we should all circle June 7th as a potential IPO date just in case.
Looking at the April 1st filing and the typical timeline for an SEC review before the S-1 becomes public, I’m anticipating the earliest SpaceX IPO could happen in June. That’s assuming there are still folks at the SEC who are willing to do their jobs instead of just skimming the first page of the filing and saying, “Looks good!” before heading out for a smoke. Of course, this process could drag on — for example, WeWork filed for an IPO in April 2019, but their S-1 didn’t drop until August, which gave us all something to chuckle about.
Elon Musk is going to have a packed schedule! Honestly, after the DOGE drama last year, we could all use a breather from him, but that’s not happening. There are various Tesla announcements on the horizon, a trial where Musk will likely make a spectacle of himself regarding Sam Altman and OpenAI, and, of course, the S-1. I really hope those events unfold in that order, or I might just collapse from sheer exhaustion.
Tesla, which seems to be distancing itself from its identity as a car company, has set an April deadline to kick off production on its Cybercabs. The design spotted at South by Southwest didn’t feature a steering wheel, pedals, or even a rear window. It’s a two-seater, because who needs friends when you can ride solo? Apparently, neither does Musk.
As expected, the Cybercab initiative is facing some hurdles. For starters, there’s been a significant exodus of talent from Tesla. Mark Lupkey, who was overseeing Cybercab manufacturing at Giga Texas, is the third senior leader to leave, following program manager Victor Nechita and Thomas Dmytryk, who was instrumental in building the ride-hailing infrastructure. The talent drain at Tesla over the past couple of years has been quite noticeable.
And it’s not just the personnel issues. The robotaxi service isn’t faring much better! Despite assurances from various enthusiasts that autonomous driving would be safer than human driving, the robotaxi program doesn’t seem to be living up to that promise. Reports indicate that as of February, humans are four times safer than Tesla’s autonomous vehicles. In comparison, Waymo appears to be genuinely safer than human drivers, which makes Tesla’s performance look pretty dismal.
We might also hear updates about Optimus, Tesla’s venture into the now-popular “physical AI,” previously known as robots. We were supposed to get news about Optimus in the first quarter of this year, but surprise, that got pushed back. I assume it’s improved from the “guy in a robot costume” phase, but I’m not convinced it’s ready for the spotlight, especially considering Musk once envisioned an “alien dreadnought” manufacturing Teslas, which turned out to be a costly failure that derailed the Model 3 timeline. (Many Model 3s ended up being produced in a tent at the Tesla Fremont factory parking lot.) I get that Silicon Valley has a disdain for human workers, but the reality is that we’re generally cheaper than the alternatives.
Lastly, there’s the next-gen Roadster, which was supposed to be showcased on April 1st — but that too has mysteriously been delayed. It might be revealed later this month, or it could vanish altogether. Production was initially slated to begin in 2020. Sure, delays are par for the course with Tesla, but six years is pushing it.
How is Tesla, the publicly traded company Musk already has? It seems to be on a downward trend. Its vehicle lineup is aging, the Cybertruck is struggling, and Musk’s far-right political activities have turned off a significant number of car buyers. The misleadingly named Full Self-Driving feature might even be facing a recall. On the bright side, Tesla’s energy sector is looking promising, with plans to operate as a utility in the UK and expand into India.
Now, let’s talk about Musk vs. Altman, which is set for a jury trial starting on April 27th. Musk, as you may recall, co-founded the research nonprofit OpenAI with Sam Altman and others during the golden days of the 2010s, when he was busy claiming we were living in a simulation and making guest appearances on shows like The Big Bang Theory. At that time, Musk and Altman were even friends, according to reports. Both had been vocal about the potential dangers of AI before deciding to build it themselves.
The issue with a company founded by two power-hungry individuals is that there can only be one leader. By 2017, Musk had acknowledged that OpenAI needed a for-profit branch to secure funding. He left in a huff when he wasn’t appointed CEO and cut off the financial support he had promised, leaving OpenAI in a tough spot — ultimately leading to its partnership with Microsoft.
Musk claims OpenAI has strayed from its original vision by going for-profit. OpenAI, on the other hand, believes Musk is trying to eliminate competition for xAI, the rival company he established after leaving. xAI was later acquired by SpaceX and is now gearing up for its own IPO, making the timing of this trial particularly interesting, as anything revealed about xAI could impact its upcoming public offering.
It’s all quite chaotic and likely to get even messier, given Musk’s notorious aggressiveness and OpenAI’s fierce legal team. Recently, there was an amusing filing suggesting what we might expect in the case: Musk’s lawyers wanted to keep his recreational drug use and connections to the Trump administration out of the trial. Even more entertaining is a deposition where Musk is asked if he knows what “rhino ket” is and whether he attended Burning Man in 2017. Among other contentious topics is whether Musk’s relationship with Shivon Zilis, who was also an OpenAI board member during their romance, can be brought up in court. Zilis, who was initially a plaintiff in the case, is the mother of four of Musk’s known children. The judge has yet to make a ruling on this particular issue.
Meanwhile, SpaceX will keep launching rockets. Lowering the cost of space travel hasn’t necessarily increased demand, as SpaceX’s biggest customer seems to be itself, and the Starlink internet service is what’s really keeping the company afloat. Perhaps we’ll see some developments regarding the various investigations and lawsuits surrounding xAI’s controversial child sexual abuse material generator, Grok. Maybe Musk will make some outlandish comments about placing AI data centers in space; who knows?
What I do know is that we’re entering another intense season of Elon Musk antics, but this time, there’s less goodwill toward him than ever. I don’t think the SpaceX IPO will completely flop, but stranger things have happened! Personally, I’m looking forward to the S-1. In the meantime, just a reminder that the go-to gray market productivity booster for many isn’t ketamine. Do with that info what you will.
