Data Centers Threaten Decades of Progress in Air Quality

A surge in new data centers could see air pollution in Texas spike to levels not witnessed since the early 2000s, as the state becomes a hub for the infrastructure supporting generative AI. These new and proposed data centers are consuming vast amounts of electricity, and how this demand is met—whether through gas turbines or renewable energy—will significantly impact pollution levels. Currently, the outlook is concerning.

Tech firms and data center developers are exploring various strategies to secure sufficient electricity, including establishing their own power sources. However, if all planned data centers connect to Texas’s electricity grid and rely on the expected energy mix, pollutants like soot and smog will surge, according to a report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC). In just five years, this could erase decades of progress in air quality.

In this scenario, fine particle pollution from the power sector could more than triple, reaching levels not seen since 2006. Smog-forming NOx emissions could rise by 136 percent, nearing pollution levels from 2004, while carbon dioxide emissions could increase by 90 percent compared to 2025 levels.

That said, these projections aren’t set in stone. HARC’s analysis considered various outcomes based on different energy demand forecasts for data centers. Many proposed projects are still speculative and may not materialize. Developers can also mitigate environmental impacts by incorporating solar and wind farms on-site.

If data centers combine grid power with on-site renewable energy, NOx emissions could be reduced by up to tenfold. Conversely, if developers opt for gas engines on-site to bypass lengthy grid connection waits, pollution levels could soar to their highest potential.

Data center capacity is typically gauged by power consumption, and Texas currently leads the nation with 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction capacity. The state is also preparing for four times more proposed data center capacity powered by on-site generation than any other state, according to a separate report. Unfortunately, many developers are resorting to less efficient gas turbine technology to expedite construction, further exacerbating the pollution associated with the data center boom.

“There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did,” stated John Hall, CEO of HARC. “The transportation sector, the state, and other stakeholders have been working for decades to successfully bring these emissions numbers down, and that progress is now at risk.”