Expert Predicts Battlefield 6 Will Likely Outperform Black Ops 7 in US Sales This Year
A prominent industry analyst has suggested that EA’s Battlefield 6 is “extremely likely” to surpass Activision’s Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 in sales within the US, potentially securing the title of the year’s top-selling game. Initially, experts anticipated that Black Ops 7 would dominate the market upon its release in November, following Battlefield 6’s launch in October. However, recent data indicates that Black Ops 7 is facing sales challenges, leading Mat Piscatella from Circana to predict that EA’s title will take the lead. This would mark only the second instance since 2018 where a Call of Duty game has been outsold in the US, the last being Hogwarts Legacy in 2023, which outperformed Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3. Prior to that, Red Dead Redemption II claimed the top spot in 2018, with Black Ops 4 trailing in second.
In 2024, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 was the best-selling game in the US, achieving this despite being the first in the series to launch on Game Pass, which reportedly cost the game around $300 million in potential revenue. Circana’s rankings are based on revenue rather than unit sales. As of November 29, Black Ops 7 ranks as the seventh best-selling game of 2025 in the US, while Battlefield 6 holds the number one position. EA has confirmed that Battlefield 6 sold 7 million copies shortly after launch, with reports suggesting that number has since climbed to 10 million. Activision has not released specific sales figures for Black Ops 7, and even if they did, the impact of Game Pass complicates the overall picture.
Another factor to consider is that Battlefield 6 is exclusive to PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X|S, whereas Black Ops 7 is available on those platforms plus PS4 and Xbox One. Before the launches, analyst Rhys Elliott noted that the new Call of Duty title would likely finish 2025 at the top due to “autopilot purchasing” habits, where players buy the latest Call of Duty games out of routine, despite complaints about a lack of innovation. Elliott’s analysis pertains to global sales, while Circana focuses solely on North America. Circana is set to release its December 2025 report and full-year sales data in January, and even if Battlefield 6 leads in North America, it doesn’t guarantee a global victory over Black Ops 7.
Call of Duty holds significant value for Microsoft and Xbox beyond just full-game sales, as players may subscribe to Game Pass to access the game, generating additional revenue for Microsoft. With Game Pass recently increasing by $30 per month, Microsoft would need a subscriber to remain active for less than 2.5 months to recoup the cost of Black Ops 7 at full price ($70), assuming they pay full price for both the membership and the game. Regardless, Black Ops 7’s sales performance is clearly not meeting the expectations of Activision and Microsoft, as evidenced by the game’s substantial price reductions. Furthermore, Activision has announced it will no longer release consecutive yearly titles within the same Call of Duty sub-series, like Modern Warfare or Black Ops. While Black Ops 7’s sales may be lower this year, the Call of Duty franchise continues to be the most significant for Xbox Game Pass.
