Prediction Markets Seek to Attract Journalists Through Partnership Offers

Prediction markets are making strides to integrate into mainstream news and culture. The recent Golden Globes broadcast featured Polymarket odds prominently, while election data is being licensed to Kalshi by a major news agency. Additionally, a collaboration between Polymarket and Substack is set to bring more prediction market insights into newsletters.

Some prediction market platforms are now reaching out to individual journalists. Rick Ellis, an independent entertainment journalist who runs AllYourScreens.com and writes a Substack newsletter focused on TV and streaming, shared that he received an intriguing offer recently. The proposal involved creating two articles per week based on prediction market data, which could cover topics like potential winners of Survivor or the fates of couples on Love Is Blind. Ellis mentioned that the payment offered was in the “mid to upper hundreds [of dollars] per post,” with the possibility of earning more if the articles achieved certain engagement metrics. He chose not to disclose the specific exchange that made the offer.

“I’ve been a reporter all my life, on and off,” Ellis stated. “I don’t mind being pitched something. Maybe I see something and say, ‘Oh, this would be a good story.’ But getting paid to do it just crosses a line that I just wasn’t willing to do.”

Journalists often receive pitches from PR firms, data providers, and other organizations looking for coverage, which can lead to their work being featured in stories. Both independent and larger media outlets sometimes publish sponsored content, although sponsors typically have no influence over editorial decisions. However, accepting payment to mention a company or utilize specific data would violate the ethical guidelines of many news organizations.

Kalshi declined to comment, and Polymarket did not respond to inquiries.

Prediction markets enable individuals to wager on the outcomes of future events, ranging from “Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31st?” to “Where will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift’s wedding take place?” In the past year, some news outlets have started referencing Polymarket and Kalshi odds in their articles. Through a new sponsorship initiative, several popular Substack newsletters now include prediction market odds, accompanied by a disclosure stating: “This is part of a data partnership with Polymarket.”

Both Polymarket and Kalshi assert that the bets they gather provide valuable insights, similar to polling data or news, but with financial stakes involved. Critics, however, label their activities as gambling, and Kalshi is currently facing multiple lawsuits, including one from Arizona’s attorney general, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business.

The involvement of respected journalists using prediction market data lends an air of credibility to the industry. What these markets seek is visibility; they want you to place bets on events like the Oscars, which could lead to wagering on more significant issues, such as geopolitical conflicts (users wagered over $120 million on the Academy Awards last weekend). Polymarket and Kalshi are also engaged in a public relations contest for the U.S. market, each trying to outdo the other with attention-grabbing stunts while distancing themselves from their main competitor.

Ellis noted that the offer he received would have been a considerable financial boost. He pointed out that entertainment media already operates under various financial pressures, with Hollywood trades competing for studio advertising dollars, which can influence editorial content. The industry is also facing significant challenges, including consolidation, layoffs, and a fragmented public information landscape.

“It’s hard for me to say no to, but I didn’t feel like I could live with myself,” Ellis reflected. “A lot of the reason that people pay for my newsletter and read it is that they trust me.”