Tesla’s Robotaxi Ambitions Face Harsh Realities

During a recent earnings call, Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk aimed to highlight the progress of the company’s robotaxi initiative. New cities are being added, more miles are being logged, and an increasing number of people are experiencing Tesla’s autonomous vehicles. However, Musk’s usual optimism seemed somewhat tempered as he sought to manage expectations regarding the program’s future.

“We’re going as fast as humanly possible in scaling Robotaxi,” Musk stated, emphasizing the importance of safety, saying they aim to avoid any harm, even to pets. Yet, this assertion of growth clashes with the current reality: mileage is stagnating, the fleet size appears to be decreasing, and despite claims of “zero notable incidents,” the safety of Tesla’s technology remains uncertain.

Tesla attempted to frame the situation positively. Ashok Elluswamy, the head of AI, reported that Tesla’s unsupervised robotaxis have driven 380,000 miles across six cities in two states, with Musk claiming a weekly increase of 10 percent in miles driven. Elluswamy also took a jab at competitors using lidar sensors, asserting that Tesla’s camera-only approach proves that safe and affordable autonomy is achievable without additional technology. “This record should be a huge validation of Tesla’s entire AI approach,” he said.

However, the reported figures raise questions. Waymo, which employs lidar and radar alongside cameras, typically covers around four million miles weekly. In contrast, Tesla’s total mileage, a year into its robotaxi program, is less than 10 percent of that. This discrepancy is beginning to concern investors, with one analyst describing it as “an alarming decline.”

Tesla’s fleet consists of both unsupervised and supervised vehicles, but the ratio is in constant flux. According to the crowdsourced Robotaxi Tracker, there are currently only 16 unsupervised vehicles in Austin, four in Dallas, and one in Houston. When asked during the call why Tesla isn’t deploying more vehicles in Austin, where the program first launched, Elluswamy explained that the company aims to ensure its technology works effectively across various cities rather than focusing solely on one location.

State regulations also pose challenges. New Jersey is considering legislation that could effectively ban robotaxis without multiple sensors, such as radar and lidar. An analyst pointed out the evolving regulatory landscape, to which Tesla’s vice president of vehicle engineering acknowledged the discouraging nature of the situation in New Jersey.

A stricter regulatory environment could limit the potential market for Tesla’s robotaxis, conflicting with the company’s narrative of a versatile service capable of operating anywhere under any conditions. Safety remains another hurdle. Musk’s comment about avoiding harm to pets seemed to subtly reference Waymo, which has faced incidents involving animals. However, Tesla’s safety record is mixed, with limited transparency regarding robotaxi crashes, as the company often redacts crucial details.

According to the Robotaxi Tracker, Tesla’s fleet has been involved in around 18 incidents, with 56 percent attributed to other drivers. Additionally, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology is under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, raising the possibility of a future recall. Currently, Tesla’s robotaxis are operating on version 15 of FSD, while customer vehicles are on version 14.3.6.

Tesla is urging investors, supporters, and customers to overlook these challenges as it continues to promote the growth of its robotaxi program. However, the company faces a reality that often contradicts this optimistic narrative.